Monday, October 11, 2010

Hyping The Hype About The Hype Of The Hype

The headline at Yahoo! News from Time:

Obama is in the Jaws of Political Death
Let's see. I seem to remember
  • Ronald Reagan in 1982 being in the very same position. Popularity was as low as Obama's is now.

And for the reverse
  • George H. W. Bush in 1990 when his popularity was off the charts and was going to be unbeatable in 1992.

But I guess they have to sell magazines and newspapers and get the TV ratings up.

Here, from The American Prospect this morning sums it up:
[S]ince World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 24 seats in midterm elections, with two exceptions in 16 elections. Indeed, the second of those exceptions was George W. Bush, who if anything, had arrogance and insularity in spades.

You don't actually need to spend your time recording the thoughts of party elites to know what will happen in a midterm year like this one. Here's why: If the president's party has a large majority, they'll lose seats. If the president is polling under 50 percent, they'll lose more seats. If the economy is poor, they'll lose even more seats. Hell, if they do absolutely nothing but the bare minimum to succeed, they will still lose seats. The simple fact is that you don't actually need to know anything about the personality of a given White House to know how the president's party will fare in midterm elections; it will lose, and the only question is "by what margin?"
In other words, Tea Party and anger aside which in many ways are not necessarily the mainstream of either party, the system is normal.

No comments: