The Sky Is Not Falling

The Best Article Every Day web site posted the chart to the left last week. It shows the times of expansion and recession over the past 49 years.

Several things jumped out at me immediately.

1. There's more green than red on the chart. In fact the average shows that red is 11 months and green is 71 months. Let me translate that. Recessions last around a year. Expansions around six years.

2. The issue of recession is obviously somewhat cyclical. That does not mean there aren't extenuating circumstances for them that could have been avoided.

3. We have survived all of the recessionary (contraction) periods and have actually done quite well afterward. Even the recession that was in progress at 9/11 did not continue past November of that year. There seems to be a resilience to the American economy. I remember a number of times when in our church we had to take some serious look at our budget in light of the economy. We adjusted, worked, and went ahead.

4. That is not to downplay either the depth or extent of this recession we are in. I do not know some of the issues of previous recessions any more. This one has some clear causes in greed, lack of oversight, and some of the basic difficulties with capitalism. Add to that the ongoing shift of world power and production and you have some serious things happening.

5. This contraction/recession will give us some opportunities to adjust and grow in new ideas and directions. One is health care. Another is the opportunity to do some work on the infrastructure. This is both a stimulus and a support system we sorely need. (More on another day.)

6. But looking at this chart gives me reason to hope- and to want to tell the news media and politicians on all sides to get their heads on straight and see that there is probably already a light at the end of the tunnel. We might be on a slow train heading that direction, but I have no doubt we are going that way.