Brilliant?....Desperate?....Last-Ditch

...or a disaster in the making?

I'm talking of course about the choice of Gov. Palin by Sen. McCain as his VP running mate. Of course I have to say something about it. Beyond "Who?" Naturally the historic nature of this is evident. She is the first woman to be nominated by THE GOP to be a vice-presidential candidate. Of course the Democrats had their first woman nominee for the same post in 1984, 24 years ago.

Which was seen by many at that time as a last-ditch, desperate, brilliant effort. Everybody with any political understanding knew that Mondale stood no chance of winning against Reagan-Bush. So the nomination of Geraldine Ferraro was seen as a desperate attempt to make history and stand out from the politics. She was a good choice. She had a lot of street cred even though she had little national recognition. It was a brilliant statement by Mondale and the Democratic party that they were the party that would be most open to diversity.

But the election was a disaster that neither Mondale nor Ferraro could stop from happening. The risk by the Democrats produced positive press but no votes.

I have a hunch that in this election the Republicans and McCain believe they can win this election. The world is different from 1984. We are more polarized today. Issues make statements about electability that were ignored two and a half decades ago. So the brilliance of the selection is obvious. She is a woman in an attempt to position the Republicans in a new, for them, electoral stance. Palin is also a social and fiscal conservative with very good street cred, sort of, in Alaska. She will balance some of McCain's obvious weaknesses: questionable credentials with the religious right and age.

Which leads to the obvious. Her age first emphasizes McCain's... and that is not necessarily good. For one thing he looks like a grandfather, not a president, next to her. She looks like an intern, not a vice-president. She will be one heartbeat away from being president, as they say. Yes she is only two years younger than Obama. But at this moment she looks younger and more inexperienced than Obama ever has. She has quite a hill to climb. And she has to face off against Biden in a debate.

She could do a lot if she can hold her own against him in a debate. She could be the defining moment for an Obama election if she fails.

It is too early to tell, of course. Pundits and (wordy) bloggers (like this one) are having a field day today and will continue to do so in the next weeks. But at this moment my political gut tells me that this will backfire against McCain. The negatives will soon far outweigh the positives. Beyond the age issue is the current investigation in Alaska about her trying to get her ex-brother-in-law fired from the State Police. (That McCain still nominated her either shows his bold maverick side, lack of insight, or brazen politics.)

I would opt for the brazen political side. It is not a policy or administrative decision. It is simply to get elected. Period. Obama, at least, in picking Biden is shoring up some of the areas where he needs to expand his presidency. In the end my political gut tells me this will be a disaster.

But put into perspective that there have only been three times in the past 48 years that I have supported the winner. Maybe my political insight isn't as good as I would like to think. Or maybe it's too good. But then again, I am biased.

BTW, one of my favorite blogs for all this is The Daily Dish by Andrew Sullivan. Just scroll down the posts for some really interesting takes on all this.