Coming to the Awards Night

Well, Sunday is the Big Night for the movie industry and for all of us who love movies- the Academy Awards. I was unable to get to the 5th of the Best Picture nominees (The Reader) this year- it was only in town a week and didn't get to go. But with no special knowledge, insight, or training, here goes my summary of the movies (in the order that I saw them).

Milk (IMDB; Tomatometer= 93%)
A moving and inspirational movie. Sean Penn is outstanding. There is nothing second-rate about this movie. It raises many issues and leads us back to a time that was at once more innocent and less free. It was a time after Vietnam and before AIDS when the possibilities of change were real. Harvey Milk believed in change for people's sake. His story is not just a gay story, it is a human potential and freedom story. It is definitely one of the two front-runners, as it should be.

Curious Case of Benjamin Button (IMDB, Tomatometer= 72%)
Overrated much like Forrest Gump was overrated. An excellent movie but the hooks are truly too contrived and superficial. The acting is very good but not of Oscar level. It is a tear-jerker with a lot to offer- and it will remain a crowd-pleaser, as it should. I truly enjoyed it and may even consider owning it on DVD, but it is not the best picture. I still vote for Gran Torino on the list in its place.

Slumdog Millionaire (IMDB; Tomatometer= 94%)
Quite a movie. It is not your standard Hollywood style. The colors, the people, the music, the poverty, the masses of India make this a refreshing addition to movie making. The fresh cast of unknown actors pulls you in and never lets you go. Yes, it is contrived, but the story is refreshing enough to let you go with it. At the same time it shows the ways of serendipity and synchronicity leading to the important things in our lives. Rightly one of the two front runners.

Frost/Nixon (IMDB; Tomatometer= 91%)
Powerful and engaging movie. It takes us back to the Nixon era and the one and only time anyone really had a chance to engage the shamed former president with the possibilities of his criminal behavior. His grandiosity and deep, deep psychosis of anti-social personality disorder floods from the screen. The movie benefits from a Tony-award winning Broadway play as its foundation. That also is what in the end makes it less of a Best Picture than it is a Best Play made into a Picture. It deserves the nomination but not the award in the end in this field.

The Reader (IMDB; Tomatometer= 60%)
Another movie that the critics generally feel shouldn't be here on this list. Perhaps if it weren't for the topic (a Holocaust theme) and the always amazingly powerful Kate Winslet, it probably wouldn't be here. I want to see it and wish I had been able to but it might well be the least likely winner.

So who is going to win? First let me mention Nate Silver of the political website 538.com. He has a post about his article in New York magazine where he uses his statistical analysis to predict the Academy Awards winners. (His 2008 election analysis was amazingly accurate.) He is 99% sure that Slumdog Millionaire is going to take the top awards. Based on its track record so far that is a safe bet.

But there is an element of this that he may miss in purely statistical analysis- the particular make-up of the Academy voting population and their somewhat quirky takes. Some of the winners are locks- Heath Ledger for supporting actor, Kate Winslet for actress- some are up for grabs- supporting actress. Mickey Rourke is a probable for actor but Sean Penn should never be counted out as he is always a remarkable actor. And as someone wrote- he even smiled in Milk. Since I haven't yet seen The Wrestler I would expect Penn to be the winner for a number of reasons.

This is one of those years when I would be more than happy with either front runner winning the Best Picture. My gut tells me the winner will be Slumdog. Unlike Silver, I don't give it a 99% chance. My heart was so moved by Milk that I would be more than pleased if it wins. I will not be surprised either way. They are both equally deserving.