When Experts are Wrong

Actually, in many fields "experts" are often wrong more than they are right. Economics comes to mind. As does political punditry.

Then there's the price of gas.

I remember not so long ago when gas was hovering in the $4.00 range and the price per barrel was around $150, the experts were saying that the price of gas was unstoppable. It was inevitable. Others said that while the price/barrel might go down (since it was oil futures that was going the problem) it would never be cheap again.

Well, I guess it all depends on your point of view.

This week the price/gallon here in southern Minnesota was hovering around the $3.20 mark. Yes that is high compared to what we paid in the good old days, but it is a price we were told never to expect again.

And what caused it? The financial meltdown which sent the price/barrel to well under $100.

Which reminded me of the book The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb which argues that the BIG world changing events (like stock market collapses, etc) are never predictable. They will always be a surprise since, in my words, if they were predictable we could be prepared for them. Predictions anre forecasts are often based on what is happening now and projecting now into the future. When things go wrong, they go wrong quickly because we aren't prepared for them.

That's why I hope never to be an expert on anything that changes.