TS Bertha Sets a Record

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog tells us that Tropical Storm Bertha has formed way east in the Atlantic. It is the

farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season. It is also the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the month of July. Reliable records of Eastern Atlantic storms go back to 1967, the beginning of the geostationary satellite era.

Of course it is a long, long way from hitting anything in the Western Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico if it ever does. But the early eastern formation does bring about the question if this is an omen of a stronger or busier hurricane season. Dr. Jeff answers:

Probably. According the the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Could become interesting. Let us hope not.