Another Day After - "The Contest Begins Tonight"

[Note: The first part of this post was actually written ahead of time prior to
yesterday's primaries. I wanted to see what was going on at that point in its
own context and then see what happened yesterday...]

At the end of last week the stakes kept going up and up. Challenges, counter-challenges. On Friday the spin began from the Clinton camp. Obama had to win ALL the primaries yesterday or it would show second thoughts. (As if 11 in a row didn't show 11th thoughts about Clinton.) I have said it before, I will probably say it again. Politics makes for some very strange logic. Very strange indeed.

Then there was that "red-phone" ad which may go down in history along with the countdown to an A-Bomb used by LBJ against Goldwater in 1964 (even as LBJ was moving us into a real war in Vietnam!) Of course Obama had a quick response. But was the ad a desperate attempt, too? Will that all give ammo to McCain?

As of Friday the polls seemed to show that the two were statistically tied in Texas and Clinton was ahead in Ohio. Hence Clinton's people were making big noise about the primary-caucus system in Texas since Obama does better with caucuses than she does.

Of course we can't forget TV. No, not the ads, the comedy shows. There's Hillary on SNL and again on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. I have to admit that as I watched SNL I was again impressed by her pesonality. It only reinforced for me that either of them will be a good candidate. But did these two appearances give her more street-cred with the younger voters? Will they slow Obama and give her the win(s) she needs?

Then on Monday the self-assurance came through for Hillary. She would continue no matter what. She has the momentum. Things are great.

Or did all these final challenges-spins come, then, from knowing something from their own polls? Were they showing a rebound for Hillary in one of the states? Or was it a last ditch effort to get her constituency out somewhere or another? Did it have the opposite effect of getting Obama support out in greater numbers? Well, let's see what happened yesterday...

[Note: The following is written after the primaries yesterday-
or I have a previously unknown gift to see the future...]

Well, first Obama's streak ended at 12 with Rhode Island going for Clinton after Obama took Vermont. Not a surprise in either case.

McCain has it now that Huckabee has dropped out. And McCain got the PR by being able to speak in prime time. And it was a speech as close to an old "stem-winder" that he may give. It was good. If it was any indication, my guess is that by the end of the two conventions in August, McCain will be, at least temporarily the front runner. The post-convention bounce will work.

I think McCain is going to be tougher to beat than we thought. Yes, the Democrats could still lose this election.

But I am not sure it will necessarily be an ongoing race between Clinton and Obama. While that could cause some problems if the campaign would turn negative, I am not sure the leadership of the Democratic Party will let that happen. Remember, the Clintons are part of that leadership. Will they be willing to flush the party and the election just for Hillary's benefit. I don't think so. (And I hope not.)

In the end, though, it may be that voters will have a difficult time electing a person older than Reagan was when he was elected. That's not fair, but it may be the final edge. Although McCain could run as a lame duck, going only for one term in the end. Hmmm.

Speaking of age, if my calculations are correct, Obama is the age that Bill Clinton was when he was elected. Another hmmmmm.

Anyway, it looks like late deciders in Texas went with Hillary this time, breaking Barack's string on this one. Did the "red phone ad" have an impact?

So I went to bed last night not long after Ohio was given to Clinton. I expected to find what I found when I got up this morning- that Hillary also won Texas although as the day has gone on it seems like Barack will take the caucuses in Texas.

I kind of felt like we were overdue for this "correction." Things were rolling along too easily for Obama- and Democrats never do anything easily. Remember that it wasn't all that long ago that everyone was saying it will be no contest- Hillary's the one. Well, it was beginning to sound like that for Barack- and, well, no one likes a democratic candidate to get too comfortable to soon.

I think it continues to show a number of significant divisions that haven't been solved yet. One is the strong Latino support of Clinton along with the "blue-collar" vote. She obviolusly was able to win the "NAFTA debate" even though NAFTA was at one time seen as her husband's administrations great achievement. Obama is not yet trusted by the Latinos. Probably a lot of reasons for that which I don't know or quite understand.

Obama has made some progress in those areas but his main support remains the young. Does that mean the older voters are afraid of that? Does it mean that somehow or another the "youthfulness" factor since he does look younger than he is can work against him as the still "youthful-thinking" boomers are not willing to look at their own aging?

But it will keep on. In a sense that is good. It is the American political process at its best and worst. Voters will continue to have an important role in the election process. It hasn't been decided- and the people in Pennsylvania next month will be as important as their Super Tuesday fellow Americans.

But will boredom soon set in? Will voters tire of the ups and downs and ins and outs? Will the campaign begin to turn negative and give McCain fodder to use against whoever the winner is?

Wow! What a lot of questions.

McCain said last night that "the contest begins tonight." He is now on the campaign trail against the Democrats. The contest rolls on for the Dems. And I don't know what else to say.

So, unlike the pundits, I will stop here and let you think through these and others on your own. I hope I spurred some thoughts for this week. If not, don't worry- the race continues.

And it is still 8 months until November!