H1N1 Flu- Update

Well, we are past the first week of the swine flu. Hard to believe that it has only been a week! You could tell earlier this week when first Arlen Specter, then 100 Days of Obama and this morning Justice Souter were all the top Yahoo! News stories. You could also tell last evening when the Health Ministry of Mexico said the cases are "leveling" off, which I guess means they are not increasing as quickly.

There are really two perspectives to take on the swine flu issue. First is that it is important to keep it all in perspective. Cory Doctorow found this information the other day:

It's estimated that about 28 per cent of Canadians and Americans contracted the Spanish flu. Worldwide, an estimated 2.5 per cent of the sick died of complications, which made the pandemic one of the most lethal flu outbreaks in recorded history. Certainly it was one that imprinted itself upon human consciousness for several generations.

But there's another way to look at those statistics. You might observe, for example, that they mean that even during the worst ravages of the 1918 flu, 97.5 per cent of those infected survived and recovered. Or that 72 per cent of the population -- even in the absence of the sophisticated public health planning and infrastructure that Canada and the U.S. have since built -- was not infected during the pandemic.

So, even if we had a repeat of the 1918 flu, the chances were seven out of 10 that you wouldn't catch it and if you did, the odds were better than nine out of 10 that you'd survive.

That was during the worst pandemic of the modern era and one which occurred in the days before the instantaneous communications of radio, television and the Web enabled quick public health responses.
--Vancouver Sun
--HT to Cory at BoingBoing

That would still be a lot of people in 2009 USA-84 million sick; 2.1 million dead. The odds are against such numbers in this age of public health and better health care, antibiotics, and generally much better sanitation. But a major flu outbreak would still have significant consequences- impacts on many aspects of life that could conceivably change the world we live in at least for a short period if not longer. That is the second perspective. Awareness of the potentials for serious issues while remaining calm.

The planning that has gone on in many local and statewide agencies for a possible flu pandemic will more than likely have a positive effect on the outcome. More people in more places are at least minimally prepared. That is good news. But that doesn't mean there would not be some significant effects.

Two areas that strike me:
1) Threat to the economy.

Look at the relatively quiet streets of Mexico City, empty football stadiums, take-out-only restaurants, no Sunday Masses at the churches, locked stores. Add to that the potential dive in air travel and you can see how the economic foundation can be undermined quite quickly. Then consider lost wages and potentially higher medical bills- even for only 10 - 15% of the population. The costs can mount quickly and could be difficult even in healthy economic times.

2) Threat to community.

Look again at the relatively quiet streets of Mexico City, empty football stadiums, take-out-only restaurants, no Sunday Masses at the churches, locked stores and you can see another difficulty. An odd, almost criminal-looking anonymity takes over the scene as people go everywhere wearing a mask. (The banks sure could have trouble telling who is a robber and who isn't.) Isolation does not build community. Nor does fear of even friends who may be carrying some disease. The 75 - 85% of us who won't even get the flu will still know someone who did. We may even know someone who dies from it.

Grief, fear, uncertainty could become the words to describe us.

But for now- things are actually relatively quiet. The "experts" are saying the H1N1 virus may not be as dangerous as expected. They are thinking it doesn't have the "staying power" nor the right genetic make-up to keep it exploding. I will keep watching the news, but will no longer be holding my breath....

Until the next time.