A New Black Swan

Surprise, surprise- Swine flu.

Did you know it was out there? Did the government know it could be a pandemic threat at any minute? What about that really possibly dangerous bird flu?

This could be an example, I believe, of what Nassim Taleb called a Black Swan- something that appears to come out of nowhere and changes the world. Whether or not it truly is a Black Swan will have to wait for further developments. But it does seem to prove the idea that the BIG BAD THING you are looking for to get you usually won't. It's the BIG BAD THING that you have no idea is out there that will.

So- is the "swine flu" going to cause a pandemic? It has been interesting in a scary way to see what has already happened in just a few days. Last Thursday we had never heard of it. By Friday evening it was top news. Yesterday the government declared a public health emergency.

Obviously the Mexican government and officials are very worried. The Catholic Church canceled all masses yesterday and a sold-out soccer match was held- with no spectators.

One of the things that could keep this from being a disastrous black swan is that we have been preparing for a flu pandemic for a few years now. Some of what has already been put into place since Friday is a result of that preparedness. That does not, however, lessen the potential for a major problem if this ends up as The Pandemic. The economic and personal costs could be enormous. Public health plans, including I am sure, quarantine regulations, are at some state of readiness.

Again, it shows us the potential fragility of the social order and social networks that we take for granted. The question I have seen asked on a number of web sites: "Is this the big one or the "flu that fizzles." A few weeks from now this may look like Chicken Little crying that the sky is falling. Or it could turn into truly horrific and culture changing event.

I'm praying for Chicken Little myself.